Research6 Sbce Pathway

SBCE Operational Pathway & Stakeholder Map — Pathway to Approved-Tools Status

Research date: 2026-04-25 — written for a software founder pursuing first-cohort approval status when the SBCE compliance phase opens.

1. SBCE Rollout Calendar (2024–2030)

The SBCE was created by Lei nº 15.042/2024 (sanctioned 11 December 2024) and is governed by a five-phase implementation schedule. As of April 2026, Brazil is roughly 16 months into Phase I and the Secretaria Extraordinária do Mercado de Carbono (SEMC) has publicly committed to closing the entire infralegal package by December 2026 — the critical hinge date for any vendor wanting first-cohort status.

Confirmed dated milestones (primary sources):

• 11 Dec 2024 — Lei 15.042/2024 sancionada
• 5 Aug 2025 — CONAREDD+ Resolução 19/2025 publicada
• 15 Oct 2025 — Decreto 12.677/2025 cria a SEMC dentro do Ministério da Fazenda
• 17 Nov 2025 — Thiago Barral nomeado Subsecretário de Implementação (DOU)
• 29 Jan 2026 — Serpro inicia oficina de Inception do Registro Central
• 30 Jan 2026 — Encerramento de inscrições para o CTCP (Comitê Técnico Consultivo Permanente) via Brasil Participativo
• 6 Mar 2026 — SEMC anuncia composição do CTCP
• 13 Apr 2026 — CEBDS entrega ao MF as “Contribuições Iniciais das Coalizões Empresariais Setoriais”
• Late 2026 — alvo declarado para fechamento do arcabouço infralegal completo
• 2027 — primeiro ciclo MRV + lançamento operacional do Registro Central (Serpro/MF)
• Dec 2028 — primeiro PNA + alocação inicial de CBE (se Phase I não for novamente prorrogada)
• 2030 — pleno funcionamento

Sources: ICAP – Brazilian GHG ETS; Mayer Brown – COP-30 advances; Agência Brasil – regulamentação até 2026; Ministério da Fazenda – Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões.

2. Org Chart — Secretaria Extraordinária do Mercado de Carbono (SEMC)

Created by Decreto 12.677/2025 (15 Oct 2025) within the Ministério da Fazenda. The SEMC temporarily exercises the powers of the SBCE managing body (órgão gestor) until a permanent agency is designated.

Ministro da Fazenda — Fernando Haddad
   │
   └── SEMC — Secretaria Extraordinária do Mercado de Carbono
         │
         ├── Secretária:  Cristina Fróes de Borja Reis
         │     - Economist, USP graduate
         │     - Formerly Subsecretária de Desenvolvimento Econômico Sustentável (SPE/MF)
         │     - Former Conselheira Titular ABDI
         │     - Lead of SBCE negotiations with Congress; closely tied to Min. Haddad
         │
         ├── Subsecretaria de Regulação e Metodologias
         │     Subsecretária:  Ana Paula Machado
         │     - Owns: technical studies, methodology accreditation,
         │              criteria for CRV recognition, sector inclusion
         │
         └── Subsecretaria de Implementação
               Subsecretário:  Thiago Barral  (nomeado 17 Nov 2025)
               - Ex-Secretário Nacional de Transição Energética e Planejamento (MME)
               - Ex-Presidente da EPE (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética)
               - Owns: Registro Central, contrato Serpro, integração com B3/CVM,
                       MRV technology, third-party tooling

Contact: official inbox semc@fazenda.gov.br (Ministério da Fazenda — composição; Cristina Reis profile; Exame – Cristina Reis assume; Eixos – Thiago Barral).

Why the structure matters for software vendors: The Subsecretaria de Implementação (Barral) is the front door for any registry-tech, MRV-platform or interoperability vendor. The Subsecretaria de Regulação (Machado) is the front door for methodology recognition and CRV-issuance criteria. Both report up to Cristina Reis, who reports to the Minister and chairs the CTCP.

3. Decision-Making Structure: Who Decides What

Brazilian SBCE governance is layered. For a vendor seeking approval status, the decisive question is which body sets the criteria for accreditation of registries, methodologies, and ancillary tools. The map:

Critical insight: the tooling/registry approval pathway will be set by SEMC (Subsec. Implementação, Barral) through its contract architecture with Serpro and through normative instructions defining “qualified service providers” — verifiers, monitoring tools, project-developer platforms. The CTCP will be consulted on methodology criteria. The CIM will not weigh in on tool approvals; it deals with macro caps.

Sources: Baker McKenzie – CTCP composition; Carbon Pulse – SBCE managing body; Mattos Filho – Brazil law carbon market; CONAREDD+ Resolução 19/2025 — Migalhas.

4. Stakeholder Map — Beyond Government

a) Industry advocacy

• CEBDS — President Marina Grossi (also Special Envoy for Business at COP30 Presidency). 120+ corporate members; coordinated the Coalizões Empresariais Setoriais de Descarbonização. Single most influential channel between large industry and SEMC. CEBDS delivered the formal sectoral input to SEMC on 13 Apr 2026 covering energy, essential minerals, agriculture and transport.
• CNI (Confederação Nacional da Indústria) — CTCP seat for industry.
• IBP (Instituto Brasileiro de Petróleo e Gás) — CTCP seat for energy.
• CNA, Unica, Abrema, CNT, Anbima, CNSeg, Febraban — other CTCP seats.
• IETA Brazil Initiative — Steering committee includes Shell, Dow, Itaú Unibanco, Mercuria, Mitsui, VALE, Petrobras (partner), Combio Energia. Brazil staff: Pedro Venzon (Brazil Lead), Elisa Guida, Mariana Tavares, Eduardo Ferreira. Most active private-sector convening platform on SBCE; runs technical workshops parallel to CTCP. (IETA Brazil Initiative)

b) Think tanks / policy analysts

• FGV — Direito SP and FGV Energia have published the most-cited policy papers. Key voice: Daniel Barcelos Vargas (FGV Direito Rio + FGV-EAESP).
• Instituto Talanoa — independent climate-policy shop; researcher Shigueo Watanabe Jr. widely quoted on SBCE design.
• Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) Brasil — based at PUC-Rio; produces econometric work used by MF.
• CEBRI (Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais) — geopolitical track; convenes finance-side conversations.
• IPAM, Imaflora, ICV, Instituto Escolhas — forest/REDD+ side; influential in CONAREDD+ rule-making.

c) Multilaterals / funders

• World Bank — listed partner of Serpro/MF for the Registro Central build.
• PMI (Partnership for Market Implementation) — World Bank’s successor program to PMR; Brazil is a participating jurisdiction.
• ICAP (International Carbon Action Partnership) — Brazil joined as observer; main external benchmark.
• GIZ / IKI — German cooperation co-funded MF preparatory work.

d) State governments (jurisdictional REDD+)

• Acre, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Pará, Tocantins all have advanced jurisdictional REDD+ programs that need to nest into SBCE under CONAREDD+ Res. 19/2025. Tocantins SEMARH and Amazonas SEMA are vocal at CONAREDD+.

Sources: Ministério da Fazenda – CEBDS contributions; Mercados de carbono – CEBDS; FGV – mercado de carbono próximos passos; Demarest – CONAREDD+ Res 19.

5. Public-Consultation Calendar

The SEMC is actively running consultations. Channel of record: Plataforma Brasil Participativo (gov.br) and the semc@fazenda.gov.br inbox.

Submission process: PDF documents to the SEMC inbox + structured responses via Brasil Participativo. Translation and Portuguese drafting required. SEMC has so far accepted both individual and coalition submissions (CEBDS being the precedent for coalition format).

Sources: Brasil Participativo; SEMC – CTCP processo seletivo.

6. Legal Advisory Ecosystem

The Brazilian carbon-market legal pack has consolidated around six firms with named SBCE practices. They are the most efficient route to introductions and the place where SEMC drafts its rule-impact analyses.

How to use them: these firms are the secondary source of intelligence on draft regulations (they often see consultation drafts before public release through CEBDS / IETA channels). Hiring one as outside counsel, or simply commissioning a legal opinion, opens doors to the partners who chair the relevant CEBDS / IETA / OAB working groups.

Sources: Mayer Brown – COP-30 advances; Trench Rossi – Renata Amaral; Pinheiro Neto – Werner Grau Neto; Mattos Filho – Lina Pimentel Garcia.

7. Capital-Markets Stakeholders

Capital markets are the secondary tier of decision-making — they will not vote on tooling but they shape Phase IV/V infrastructure standards.

• B3 — Launched its first carbon credit registration platform pilot at NYC Climate Week Sept 2025, in partnership with AirCarbon Exchange (ACX), Reservas Votorantim, and CCR. First credits (PSA Carbonflor) are registered; Motiva and EY are early buyers (~30k credits). B3 has explicit ambition to be the secondary venue for CBEs/CRVs once Phase IV opens. Carbon-product team sits inside B3’s Balcão unit.
• ANBIMA — runs a Carbon Markets Working Group under its sustainable-finance committee; member of the CTCP financial-institutions seat (alongside Febraban + CNSeg).
• BNDES Fundo Clima — FY-2026 budget of R$ 27 bn (largest ever); the 2026 Plano Anual de Aplicação de Recursos (PAAR) explicitly adds SBCE-regulated sectors to eligibility. Total disbursements to 2026 projected at R$ 32.1 bn. BNDES is a partner in MMA’s voluntary-market consulta pública — front door for project-finance + tooling subsidies.
• Itaú BBA — IETA Brazil steering committee member (Itaú Unibanco). Most active private-bank carbon trading desk.
• BTG Pactual — proprietary carbon-credit fund; aggressive in REDD+ deals.
• XP Inc — runs ESG-product line; carbon-credit research notes via XP Investimentos.
• Banco do Brasil — large agribusiness book; carbon-credit fintech partnerships piloted via BB DTVM.

Sources: B3 – ACX partnership; BNDES – Fundo Clima 2026; Reservas Votorantim – plataforma B3.

8. Comparable-Precedent Analysis: How Other ETS Accredit Tools

The Brazilian system has explicitly studied four precedents. Vendor-approval mechanics in each:

EU ETS (Union Registry)

• Single centralized registry built and operated by the European Commission (DG CLIMA) via contractor; no third-party “registry vendor” approval list. Member states’ national administrators interface via standardized APIs.
• Verifier accreditation under Reg. (EU) 2018/2067 + ISO/IEC 17029:2019 + ISO 14065:2021; national accreditation bodies (e.g., COFRAC, DAkkS) maintain public lists.
• MRV-software vendors are unregulated — operators choose any tool, but verifier signs off. Persefoni, Climate-View, etc., compete on operator preference, not regulatory list.
• Lesson for Brazil: the official “approved tool” list is most likely to apply to verifiers (and the methodologies they apply), not to operator-side MRV software. To win, position as a tool that helps verifiers + operators meet the rule — and seek partnership with a verifier already accredited under ISO 14065/14066.

California (CARB / CITSS)

• CITSS administered by Western Climate Initiative, Inc. (non-profit) for CARB + Québec + Washington.
• CARB explicitly says it does not endorse third-party software for submitting data. Operators submit through CITSS web UI or via CARB’s MRR Tool.
• ARB does publish a list of accredited Verification Bodies (~40) and accredited verifiers.
• Lesson: an “approved tools” gate is rare in cap-and-trade; the gate is on verifiers. Software companies in California have grown by being indispensable to the verifiers and large emitters, not by chasing direct CARB approval.

RGGI (COATS)

• Multi-state CO2 allowance tracking system, administered by RGGI Inc.; verifiers must be accredited by the host state.
• No third-party tool approval list. Same pattern as California.

Korea ETS (K-ETS)

• Registry operated by Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center (GIR) under the Ministry of Environment.
• Verifiers undergo full state accreditation through KAB (Korea Accreditation Board). Tooling selection is operator-side.

Mexico SCE

• Pilot phase 2020–2022 then operational. Registry: Sistema de Seguimiento de los Derechos de Emisión (SEMARNAT).
• Verification bodies: must be accredited by Entidad Mexicana de Acreditación (EMA) and approved by PROFEPA under ISO 14065/14064-3/14066. SEMARNAT’s 2025 restructuring put a Subsecretaría for Sustainable Development in charge of operating the ETS.
• Lesson: Latin precedent is the closest analog — ISO-based verifier accreditation through a national accreditation body, with the environmental ministry having approval authority. Brazil’s INMETRO is the equivalent national accreditation body and almost certainly will be designated for SBCE verifier accreditation.

Pattern across all five: the legally meaningful approved-list is for verifiers/VVBs (under ISO 14065/14066 + ISO/IEC 17029) and for methodologies. Software/registry-tech vendors win by being either (a) the contracted Registry (Brazil = Serpro, locked in) or (b) the chosen MRV stack of verifiers and large operators. There is no precedent for a “list of approved MRV software vendors” maintained by the regulator.

This is the most important strategic finding for the founder: do not anchor the strategy on an “approved tool list” — anchor on verifier accreditation partnership + operator capture + Serpro API integration.

Sources: CARB – CITSS Registration; EU ETS Accreditation and Verification Reg.; RGGI COATS; ICAP – K-ETS; ICAP – Mexican ETS.

9. Pathway Memo — The Concrete 30-Month Playbook

The window is April 2026 → September 2028. The single biggest event is the publication of the regulamento + MRV/methodology normative instructions in late 2026. Anything you do after rules are fixed is too late to influence them. Anything you do before late 2026 is in the formative window.

Phase 0–3 months (May–Jul 2026): Listening tour + introductions

Targets (priority order):

1. Pedro Venzon, IETA Brasil — fastest path to private-sector working groups and to the SEMC-IETA dialogue.
2. Marina Grossi, CEBDS — controls the dominant business-coalition channel into MF.
3. Renata Amaral (Trench Rossi) + Werner Grau Neto (Pinheiro Neto) — outside counsel relationships open partner-level intros.
4. Subsec. Implementação (Thiago Barral) chief of staff / advisors — direct request via semc@fazenda.gov.br for a technical briefing meeting; precedent set by CEBDS in April 2026.
5. Serpro Inception team (product manager Leandro Câmara) — public-facing quote on requirements/integration.
6. B3 Balcão / ESG product team — secondary-market integration angle.

Framing for first meeting: “We’re a software founder building [X] for the SBCE compliance phase. We’ve reviewed Lei 15.042/2024, Decreto 12.677, CONAREDD+ Res. 19, and the MVP scope of the Registro Central. We want to be a useful technical input to the Subsecretaria’s normative-instruction drafting on MRV protocols and verifier interfaces. What’s the most useful contribution we could make in your next round of consultations?”

Bring: a 2-page Portuguese memo with three concrete proposals tied to a published draft or rule-section, plus a benchmark from EU ETS / Mexico SCE.

Phase 3–9 months (Aug 2026–Jan 2027): Position papers + consultation responses

• File a formal coalition response to the Decreto regulamentador consultation (likely Q3 2026). Co-sign with at least one CTCP member (CNI, IBP, CEBDS).
• Contribute to the IETA Brasil discussion paper update (Brazil chapter publishes annually).
• Publish a technical white paper in Portuguese on MRV interoperability standards — distribute via CEBDS, IETA, and a partner law firm.
• Apply for a CTCP observer slot (associates of titulares can attend); requires sector-organization tie.
• Engage with INMETRO on verifier-accreditation framework — informational meeting on ISO 14065/14066/17029 alignment.
• Approach a Brazilian VVB candidate (e.g., Bureau Veritas Brasil, DNV Brasil, SGS, ABS QE) about being their tool of choice once they accredit under SBCE.

Phase 9–18 months (Feb 2027–Oct 2027): Pilot proposal + MoU with SEMC

• Submit MoU proposal to SEMC for a pilot integration with Serpro’s Registro Central — operator-side MRV reporting in API-compatible format. Frame as zero-cost technical contribution.
• Sponsor a pilot with a CTCP-seat operator (e.g., a CNI-member industrial company in the steel/cement/refining cohort that will be in Phase II reporting). Pilot MUST produce reports compatible with the published MRV protocol.
• Co-author a technical-assistance project with World Bank PMI (already involved with MF) — the easiest non-Brazilian credibility lever.
• BNDES Fundo Clima Chamada de Clima 2027 — apply via a fund-of-funds partner for tooling subsidy.

Phase 18–30 months (Nov 2027–Sep 2028): Production integration + early-cohort positioning

• By Phase II first-cycle (mid-2027 reporting on 2026 emissions), be the de facto MRV stack for at least one large operator + one accredited verifier.
• Publish case study with quantitative results; circulate to SEMC, CTCP, ANBIMA WG.
• Push for inclusion in any “qualified service-provider list” SEMC publishes for Phase III (2027–2029 verified reporting).
• By Q3 2028, position for Phase IV launch (Dec 2028 first allocation + secondary market).

Total budget signal: R$ 4–8 million over 30 months realistic for a credible Brasília presence — counsel retainer (R$ 80k/mo), a senior gov’t-affairs hire (R$ 800k/yr loaded), trade-association memberships (CEBDS R$ 100k+; IETA membership USD ~25k+), travel, white papers, pilot subsidy.

10. Pitch Talking-Points — Cold-Outreach Templates

To a SEMC official (Subsec. Implementação or Subsec. Regulação):

“Prezada Subsecretária / Prezado Subsecretário, Sou [nome], fundador da [empresa], que desenvolve software de [MRV / registro / interoperabilidade] usado por [N operadores] em [jurisdições]. Acompanhamos com atenção a publicação do Decreto 12.677/2025 e o início do desenvolvimento do Registro Central com a Serpro. Gostaríamos de apresentar uma contribuição técnica, em formato de memorando de 4 páginas, sobre [tópico específico — APIs MRV / verificação remota / nesting REDD+], oferecendo benchmarks do EU ETS e do SCE mexicano. Podemos sugerir um encontro de 30 minutos no horário de sua preferência?”

To an IETA Brazil board member:

“Hi [name], I’m [name], building [product] for compliance carbon markets. I’ve followed IETA’s July-2025 SBCE discussion paper closely and would value 20 minutes to share three concrete contributions we could make to the Brazil Initiative working group on MRV/registries. We’re already integrated with [EU ETS / Mexico SCE / Verra] and want to bring that capability to the SBCE rollout. Can we find time before [next IETA Brasil event]?”

To a B3 product manager (Balcão / ESG):

“Olá [nome], [empresa] é uma plataforma [MRV / project lifecycle / portfolio analytics] para créditos de carbono. Vimos o anúncio da plataforma piloto B3-ACX em set/2025 e o registro do PSA Carbonflor. Estamos prontos para integração na camada [registro / negociação / due diligence], e gostaríamos de explorar como complementar a B3 para clientes corporativos no rollout SBCE. Você teria 30 minutos para uma conversa exploratória?”

To a BNDES Fundo Clima officer:

“Prezado(a) [nome], represento a [empresa], desenvolvedora de [produto] focado nos setores cobertos pelo SBCE. Notamos que o PAAR 2026 inclui setores SBCE como elegíveis para financiamento e que a Chamada de Clima do BNDES selecionou fundos com R$ 16,2 bi alavancados. Gostaríamos de apresentar como [produto] pode ser ferramenta de monitoramento de uso de recursos por tomadores do Fundo Clima — acelerando reporting e reduzindo risco operacional. Aceitaríamos uma reunião de 30 min.”

11. Risk + Uncertainty

Political (high):

• Outubro 2026 — eleição presidencial brasileira. Lula vs. center-right candidate. A Bolsonaro-aligned victory would not repeal Lei 15.042 (it was bipartisan), but could slow infralegal publication, replace Cristina Reis / Thiago Barral, and alter SBCE design (e.g., expanded free allocation, weaker MRV). Plan-for-disruption: maintain non-partisan stakeholder relationships, especially with CTCP industry seats (CNI, IBP, CNA) which survive any government change.
• State-level capacity: several Amazon governors (especially Pará post-COP30) are pushing for stronger jurisdictional REDD+ autonomy, potentially conflicting with federal nesting rules.

Legal (medium–high):

• Operação Greenwashing fallout (PF, since 5 Jun 2024). R$ 180M fraud on grilagem-based carbon credits in southern Amazonas; 31 indicted to date, R$ 1B confiscated. Has already tightened CONAREDD+ Res. 19 safeguards on territórios coletivos and likely will tighten methodology accreditation criteria. Means more compliance-software demand, but also more regulator skepticism toward fast-track approvals. Strategic implication: integrity-tech (provenance, anti-double-counting, satellite verification) is more defensible than pure registry-UX.
• CONAREDD+ Res. 19/2025 implementation litigation — territórios coletivos rules are being tested in courts.

Operational (medium):

• Phase I extension risk. Phase I was already extended by 12 months once; if late 2026 deadline slips, Phase II reporting moves to 2027 or 2028. Plan for ±12 months on every milestone.
• Serpro performance risk. Serpro is the de facto registry monopolist; if its build slips, the entire Phase II/III timeline slips. Vendors who can de-risk Serpro’s integrations (open-API connectors, pre-built operator workflows) gain leverage.
• CTCP advisory-only risk. The CTCP is advisory; SEMC technical staff can override. A vendor that depends on CTCP support without direct SEMC relationships is fragile.

Sources: PF – Operação Greenwashing; Amazônia Real – fraude; CNN Brasil – desafio 2026.

12. Recommended Advisory-Hire Profile

For a serious 30-month Brasília push, hire one senior + one mid-level:

Senior — Diretor(a) de Relações Governamentais / Regulatórias (Brasília-based)

• Profile: 12–18 years in Brazilian federal regulatory affairs; ideally ex-Ministério da Fazenda, MMA, EPE, or BNDES; existing relationships into SEMC Subsecretarias.
• Sweet spot: someone who served under Cristina Reis at SPE/MF or under Barral at MME/EPE in the last 3–5 years and is now in private practice or moving.
• Network signals: speaker at FGV/CEBRI events, member of OAB Comissão de Direito Ambiental, named in Carbon Pulse coverage.
• Comp band: R$ 65–95k/mo base + variable + equity, plus relocation; total package R$ 1.2–1.6 M/yr.
• Where to source: Trench Rossi / Mayer Brown government-relations consulting arms, ex-EPE/MME alumni network, FGV Direito Brasília alumni.

Mid-level — Gerente de Política Pública / Pesquisa (São Paulo OR Brasília)

• Profile: 5–8 years; FGV, IPAM, CPI Brasil, or IETA experience; bilingual; comfortable drafting Portuguese position papers and translating to English board/investors.
• Comp band: R$ 30–45k/mo + bonus; ~R$ 500–650k/yr loaded.

External counsel: retainer with one of Trench Rossi (Renata Amaral) OR Mayer Brown (Pablo Sorj/Cuadrado) for ~R$ 70–110k/mo plus project fees. Add Demarest or Mattos Filho as second-look counsel for environmental/CONAREDD+ matters.

Trade-association memberships (annual): CEBDS R$ 100–250k; IETA USD 25–40k; ABDIB R$ 25–60k; ANBIMA market-data tier R$ 30k. Total ~R$ 600–800k/yr.

Closing Synthesis

The single tightest action window is May 2026 – December 2026, when SEMC will publish the rules that lock in (a) MRV protocol and verifier-accreditation framework, (b) methodology accreditation criteria for CRVs, and (c) the technical specifications for integration with Serpro’s Registro Central. After that window, the rules are written; the only growth lever is field-level operator capture.

The strategic reframing that the precedent analysis forces: there is no precedent in any compliance ETS for a regulator-maintained “approved software tool” list. The legally binding approval gate is on (1) verifiers/VVBs (ISO 14065/14066, accredited via INMETRO) and (2) methodologies. A software founder who wants first-cohort status should therefore (i) integrate deeply with one or more soon-to-be-accredited Brazilian VVBs, (ii) build natively against Serpro’s emerging APIs, (iii) embed in CEBDS and IETA Brazil working groups to be cited in normative-instruction drafting, and (iv) hire a senior Brasília-based government-affairs lead with a direct line into Subsec. Implementação. The real “approval” is being indispensable when Phase II reporting starts in 2027 — not being on a list.